Towards evolutionary predictions: Current promises and challenges.

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS-CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR-based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

Caenorhabditis nematodes colonize ephemeral resource patches in neotropical forests.

Factors shaping the distribution and abundance of species include life-history traits, population structure, and stochastic colonization-extinction dynamics. Field studies of model species groups help reveal the roles of these factors. Species of Caenorhabditis nematodes are highly divergent at the sequence level but exhibit highly conserved morphology, and many of these species live in sympatry on microbe-rich patches of rotten material. Here, we use field experiments and large-scale opportunistic collections to investigate species composition, abundance, and colonization efficiency of Caenorhabditis species in two of the world's best-studied lowland tropical field sites: Barro Colorado Island in Panamá and La Selva in Sarapiquí, Costa Rica. We observed seven species of Caenorhabditis, four of them known only from these collections. We formally describe two species and place them within the Caenorhabditis phylogeny. While these localities contain species from many parts of the phylogeny, both localities were dominated by globally distributed androdiecious species. We found that Caenorhabditis individuals were able to colonize baits accessible only through phoresy and preferentially colonized baits that were in direct contact with the ground. We estimate the number of colonization events per patch to be low.

Gene-level quantitative trait mapping in Caenorhabditis elegans.

The Caenorhabditis elegans multiparental experimental evolution (CeMEE) panel is a collection of genome-sequenced, cryopreserved recombinant inbred lines useful for mapping the evolution and genetic basis of quantitative traits. We have expanded the resource with new lines and new populations, and here report the genotype and haplotype composition of CeMEE version 2, including a large set of putative de novo mutations, and updated additive and epistatic mapping simulations. Additive quantitative trait loci explaining 4% of trait variance are detected with >80% power, and the median detection interval approaches single-gene resolution on the highly recombinant chromosome arms. Although CeMEE populations are derived from a long-term evolution experiment, genetic structure is dominated by variation present in the ancestral population.

Selfing is the safest sex for Caenorhabditis tropicalis.

Mating systems have profound effects on genetic diversity and compatibility. The convergent evolution of self-fertilization in three Caenorhabditis species provides a powerful lens to examine causes and consequences of mating system transitions. Among the selfers, Caenorhabditis tropicalis is the least genetically diverse and most afflicted by outbreeding depression. We generated a chromosomal-scale genome for C. tropicalis and surveyed global diversity. Population structure is very strong, and islands of extreme divergence punctuate a genomic background that is highly homogeneous around the globe. Outbreeding depression in the laboratory is caused largely by multiple Medea-like elements, genetically consistent with maternal toxin/zygotic antidote systems. Loci with Medea activity harbor novel and duplicated genes, and their activity is modified by mito-nuclear background. Segregating Medea elements dramatically reduce fitness, and simulations show that selfing limits their spread. Frequent selfing in C. tropicalis may therefore be a strategy to avoid Medea-mediated outbreeding depression.

The Ancestral Caenorhabditis elegans Cuticle Suppresses rol-1.

Genetic background commonly modifies the effects of mutations. We discovered that worms mutant for the canonical rol-1 gene, identified by Brenner in 1974, do not roll in the genetic background of the wild strain CB4856. Using linkage mapping, association analysis and gene editing, we determined that N2 carries an insertion in the collagen gene col-182 that acts as a recessive enhancer of rol-1 rolling. From population and comparative genomics, we infer the insertion is derived in N2 and related laboratory lines, likely arising during the domestication of Caenorhabditis elegans, and breaking a conserved protein. The ancestral version of col-182 also modifies the phenotypes of four other classical cuticle mutant alleles, and the effects of natural genetic variation on worm shape and locomotion. These results underscore the importance of genetic background and the serendipity of Brenner's choice of strain.

Hybridization promotes asexual reproduction in Caenorhabditis nematodes.

Although most unicellular organisms reproduce asexually, most multicellular eukaryotes are obligately sexual. This implies that there are strong barriers that prevent the origin or maintenance of asexuality arising from an obligately sexual ancestor. By studying rare asexual animal species we can gain a better understanding of the circumstances that facilitate their evolution from a sexual ancestor. Of the known asexual animal species, many originated by hybridization between two ancestral sexual species. The balance hypothesis predicts that genetic incompatibilities between the divergent genomes in hybrids can modify meiosis and facilitate asexual reproduction, but there are few instances where this has been shown. Here we report that hybridizing two sexual Caenorhabditis nematode species (C. nouraguensis females and C. becei males) alters the normal inheritance of the maternal and paternal genomes during the formation of hybrid zygotes. Most offspring of this interspecies cross die during embryogenesis, exhibiting inheritance of a diploid C. nouraguensis maternal genome and incomplete inheritance of C. becei paternal DNA. However, a small fraction of offspring develop into viable adults that can be either fertile or sterile. Fertile offspring are produced asexually by sperm-dependent parthenogenesis (also called gynogenesis or pseudogamy); these progeny inherit a diploid maternal genome but fail to inherit a paternal genome. Sterile offspring are hybrids that inherit both a diploid maternal genome and a haploid paternal genome. Whole-genome sequencing of individual viable worms shows that diploid maternal inheritance in both fertile and sterile offspring results from an altered meiosis in C. nouraguensis oocytes and the inheritance of two randomly selected homologous chromatids. We hypothesize that hybrid incompatibility between C. nouraguensis and C. becei modifies maternal and paternal genome inheritance and indirectly induces gynogenetic reproduction. This system can be used to dissect the molecular mechanisms by which hybrid incompatibilities can facilitate the emergence of asexual reproduction.

Comparative genomics of 10 new Caenorhabditis species.

The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans has been central to the understanding of metazoan biology. However, C. elegans is but one species among millions and the significance of this important model organism will only be fully revealed if it is placed in a rich evolutionary context. Global sampling efforts have led to the discovery of over 50 putative species from the genus Caenorhabditis, many of which await formal species description. Here, we present species descriptions for 10 new Caenorhabditis species. We also present draft genome sequences for nine of these new species, along with a transcriptome assembly for one. We exploit these whole-genome data to reconstruct the Caenorhabditis phylogeny and use this phylogenetic tree to dissect the evolution of morphology in the genus. We reveal extensive variation in genome size and investigate the molecular processes that underlie this variation. We show unexpected complexity in the evolutionary history of key developmental pathway genes. These new species and the associated genomic resources will be essential in our attempts to understand the evolutionary origins of the C. elegans model.

Polygenicity and Epistasis Underlie Fitness-Proximal Traits in the Caenorhabditis elegans Multiparental Experimental Evolution (CeMEE) Panel.

Understanding the genetic basis of complex traits remains a major challenge in biology. Polygenicity, phenotypic plasticity, and epistasis contribute to phenotypic variance in ways that are rarely clear. This uncertainty can be problematic for estimating heritability, for predicting individual phenotypes from genomic data, and for parameterizing models of phenotypic evolution. Here, we report an advanced recombinant inbred line (RIL) quantitative trait locus mapping panel for the hermaphroditic nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, the C. elegans multiparental experimental evolution (CeMEE) panel. The CeMEE panel, comprising 507 RILs at present, was created by hybridization of 16 wild isolates, experimental evolution for 140-190 generations, and inbreeding by selfing for 13-16 generations. The panel contains 22% of single-nucleotide polymorphisms known to segregate in natural populations, and complements existing C. elegans mapping resources by providing fine resolution and high nucleotide diversity across > 95% of the genome. We apply it to study the genetic basis of two fitness components, fertility and hermaphrodite body size at time of reproduction, with high broad-sense heritability in the CeMEE. While simulations show that we should detect common alleles with additive effects as small as 5%, at gene-level resolution, the genetic architectures of these traits do not feature such alleles. We instead find that a significant fraction of trait variance, approaching 40% for fertility, can be explained by sign epistasis with main effects below the detection limit. In congruence, phenotype prediction from genomic similarity, while generally poor ([Formula: see text]), requires modeling epistasis for optimal accuracy, with most variance attributed to the rapidly evolving chromosome arms.

Aspergillus fumigatus protein phosphatase PpzA is involved in iron assimilation, secondary metabolite production, and virulence.

Metal restriction imposed by mammalian hosts during an infection is a common mechanism of defence to reduce or avoid the pathogen infection. Metals are essential for organism survival due to its involvement in several biological processes. Aspergillus fumigatus causes invasive aspergillosis, a disease that typically manifests in immunocompromised patients. A. fumigatus PpzA, the catalytic subunit of protein phosphatase Z (PPZ), has been recently identified as associated with iron assimilation. A. fumigatus has 2 high-affinity mechanisms of iron acquisition during infection: reductive iron assimilation and siderophore-mediated iron uptake. It has been shown that siderophore production is important for A. fumigatus virulence, differently to the reductive iron uptake system. Transcriptomic and proteomic comparisons between ∆ppzA and wild-type strains under iron starvation showed that PpzA has a broad influence on genes involved in secondary metabolism. Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry under standard and iron starvation conditions confirmed that the ΔppzA mutant had reduced production of pyripyropene A, fumagillin, fumiquinazoline A, triacetyl-fusarinine C, and helvolic acid. The ΔppzA was shown to be avirulent in a neutropenic murine model of invasive pulmonary aspergillosis. PpzA plays an important role at the interface between iron starvation, regulation of SM production, and pathogenicity in A. fumigatus.

A Plastic Vegetative Growth Threshold Governs Reproductive Capacity in Aspergillus nidulans.

Ontogenetic phases separating growth from reproduction are a common feature of cellular life. Long recognized for flowering plants and animals, early literature suggests this life-history component may also be prevalent among multicellular fungi. We establish the basis of developmental competence-the capacity to respond to induction of asexual development-in the filamentous saprotroph Aspergillus nidulans, describing environmental influences, including genotype-by-environment interactions among precocious mutants, gene expression associated with wild type and precocious competence acquisition, and the genetics of competence timing. Environmental effects are consistent with a threshold driven by metabolic rate and organism density, with pH playing a particularly strong role in determining competence timing. Gene expression diverges significantly over the competence window, despite a lack of overt morphological change, with differentiation in key metabolic, signaling, and cell trafficking processes. We identify five genes for which mutant alleles advance competence timing, including the conserved GTPase RasB (AN5832) and ambient pH sensor PalH (AN6886). In all cases examined, inheritance of competence timing is complex and non-Mendelian, with F1 progeny showing highly variable transgressive timing and dominant parental effects with a weak contribution from progeny genotype. Competence provides a new model for nutrient-limited life-cycle phases, and their elaboration from unicellular origins. Further work is required to establish the hormonal and bioenergetic basis of the trait across fungi, and underlying mechanisms of variable inheritance.

The Genetic Basis of Natural Variation in Caenorhabditis elegans Telomere Length.

Telomeres are involved in the maintenance of chromosomes and the prevention of genome instability. Despite this central importance, significant variation in telomere length has been observed in a variety of organisms. The genetic determinants of telomere-length variation and their effects on organismal fitness are largely unexplored. Here, we describe natural variation in telomere length across the Caenorhabditis elegans species. We identify a large-effect variant that contributes to differences in telomere length. The variant alters the conserved oligonucleotide/oligosaccharide-binding fold of protection of telomeres 2 (POT-2), a homolog of a human telomere-capping shelterin complex subunit. Mutations within this domain likely reduce the ability of POT-2 to bind telomeric DNA, thereby increasing telomere length. We find that telomere-length variation does not correlate with offspring production or longevity in C. elegans wild isolates, suggesting that naturally long telomeres play a limited role in modifying fitness phenotypes in C. elegans.

Natural Variation in plep-1 Causes Male-Male Copulatory Behavior in C. elegans.

In sexual species, gametes have to find and recognize one another. Signaling is thus central to sexual reproduction and involves a rapidly evolving interplay of shared and divergent interests [1-4]. Among Caenorhabditis nematodes, three species have evolved self-fertilization, changing the balance of intersexual relations [5]. Males in these androdioecious species are rare, and the evolutionary interests of hermaphrodites dominate. Signaling has shifted accordingly, with females losing behavioral responses to males [6, 7] and males losing competitive abilities [8, 9]. Males in these species also show variable same-sex and autocopulatory mating behaviors [6, 10]. These behaviors could have evolved by relaxed selection on male function, accumulation of sexually antagonistic alleles that benefit hermaphrodites and harm males [5, 11], or neither of these, because androdioecy also reduces the ability of populations to respond to selection [12-14]. We have identified the genetic cause of a male-male mating behavior exhibited by geographically dispersed C. elegans isolates, wherein males mate with and deposit copulatory plugs on one another's excretory pores. We find a single locus of major effect that is explained by segregation of a loss-of-function mutation in an uncharacterized gene, plep-1, expressed in the excretory cell in both sexes. Males homozygous for the plep-1 mutation have excretory pores that are attractive or receptive to copulatory behavior of other males. Excretory pore plugs are injurious and hermaphrodite activity is compromised in plep-1 mutants, so the allele might be unconditionally deleterious, persisting in the population because the species' androdioecious mating system limits the reach of selection.

KdmA, a histone H3 demethylase with bipartite function, differentially regulates primary and secondary metabolism in Aspergillus nidulans.

Aspergillus nidulans kdmA encodes a member of the KDM4 family of jumonji histone demethylase proteins, highly similar to metazoan orthologues both within functional domains and in domain architecture. This family of proteins exhibits demethylase activity towards lysines 9 and 36 of histone H3 and plays a prominent role in gene expression and chromosome structure in many species. Mass spectrometry mapping of A. nidulans histones revealed that around 3% of bulk histone H3 carried trimethylated H3K9 (H3K9me3) but more than 90% of histones carried either H3K36me2 or H3K36me3. KdmA functions as H3K36me3 demethylase and has roles in transcriptional regulation. Genetic manipulation of KdmA levels is tolerated without obvious effect in most conditions, but strong phenotypes are evident under various conditions of stress. Transcriptome analysis revealed that - in submerged early and late cultures - between 25% and 30% of the genome is under KdmA influence respectively. Transcriptional imbalance in the kdmA deletion mutant may contribute to the lethal phenotype observed upon exposure of mutant cells to low-density visible light on solid medium. Although KdmA acts as transcriptional co-repressor of primary metabolism genes, it is required for full expression of several genes involved in biosynthesis of secondary metabolites.

Reproductive competence: a recurrent logic module in eukaryotic development.

Developmental competence is the ability to differentiate in response to an appropriate stimulus, as first elaborated by Waddington in relation to organs and tissues. Competence thresholds operate at all levels of biological systems from the molecular (e.g. the cell cycle) to the ontological (e.g. metamorphosis and reproduction). Reproductive competence, an organismal process, is well studied in mammals (sexual maturity) and plants (vegetative phase change), though far less than later stages of terminal differentiation. The phenomenon has also been documented in multiple species of multicellular fungi, mostly in early, disparate literature, providing a clear example of physiological differentiation in the absence of morphological change. This review brings together data on reproductive competence in Ascomycete fungi, particularly the model filamentous fungus Aspergillus nidulans, contrasting mechanisms within Unikonts and plants. We posit reproductive competence is an elementary logic module necessary for coordinated development of multicellular organisms or functional units. This includes unitary multicellular life as well as colonial species both unicellular and multicellular (e.g. social insects such as ants). We discuss adaptive hypotheses for developmental and reproductive competence systems and suggest experimental work to address the evolutionary origins, generality and genetic basis of competence in the fungal kingdom.

Fungal genes in context: genome architecture reflects regulatory complexity and function.

Gene context determines gene expression, with local chromosomal environment most influential. Comparative genomic analysis is often limited in scope to conserved or divergent gene and protein families, and fungi are well suited to this approach with low functional redundancy and relatively streamlined genomes. We show here that one aspect of gene context, the amount of potential upstream regulatory sequence maintained through evolution, is highly predictive of both molecular function and biological process in diverse fungi. Orthologs with large upstream intergenic regions (UIRs) are strongly enriched in information processing functions, such as signal transduction and sequence-specific DNA binding, and, in the genus Aspergillus, include the majority of experimentally studied, high-level developmental and metabolic transcriptional regulators. Many uncharacterized genes are also present in this class and, by implication, may be of similar importance. Large intergenic regions also share two novel sequence characteristics, currently of unknown significance: they are enriched for plus-strand polypyrimidine tracts and an information-rich, putative regulatory motif that was present in the last common ancestor of the Pezizomycotina. Systematic consideration of gene UIR in comparative genomics, particularly for poorly characterized species, could help reveal organisms' regulatory priorities.